4. Distributor Demand Sensing

Ingests distributor sell-through and regional project pipelines to forecast pull, flag stock-outs before reorders stop, and prompt the replenishment conversation with the numbers attached. Target: Stock-outs down 40%, forecast accuracy up a quarter ahead.

Core buildConceptNext

Business impact

77/100

Distributor stock-outs

Build effort

50/100

Channel platform

Projected lift

+19%vs pre-agent baseline

Distributor stock-outs

Time to value

2 quarters

From kickoff

Interactions / month

3,528+11%

Agent-handled

Automation rate

74%-5% human touches

No human in loop

Net value / year

₹1.4Cr

Revenue + cost avoided − run cost

Payback

9 months

Cumulative net positive

Adoption curve

Agent-handled volume vs pre-agent baseline

Jul84 peakDec

Baseline (manual process)

JulAugSepOctNovDec

Readiness scorecard

Six delivery dimensions

DataModelIntegrationAdoptionComplianceOps readiness

Outcome funnel

How distributor stock-outs is produced

  • Eligible interactions4,456
  • Agent-handled3,25673%
  • Qualified outcome1,50646%
  • Distributor stock-outs won83656%

Usage by geography

120
120
-10
55
-43
USAEUMiddle EastIndia defenceSE Asia

Cost mix

Share of run cost

50
  • Inference38%
  • Integration11%
  • Data prep6%
  • Change mgmt2%

Cohort retention

Share of users still using the product weekly

W1W2W3W4W6W8
Cohort 11009685746961
Cohort 21089387716653
Cohort 31069082705746
Cohort 41049888746556
Cohort 51059783706252

Performance by geography

Indexed 0–100 across five signals

VolumeAccuracyDeflectionCSATRevenue
USA8399954997
EU7076873760
Middle East8958353752
India defence3862556861

Model quality

Live vs target

MetricCurrentTarget30-dayStatus
Precision8690+3.1Closing gap
Recall7685+4.4Closing gap
Grounded-answer rate8395+1.8Closing gap
Escalation rate26-2.2Closing gap
P95 latency (s)13-0.4Closing gap
Hallucination flags / 1k-11-0.9Closing gap

Service levels

77%

Impact score

50%

Delivery ease

90%

Uptime (30 days)

Unit economics

₹ per year, indexed to pilot scale

  • Revenue influenced₹4.0Cr
  • Cost avoided₹15L
  • Run cost₹14L
  • Net value₹1.4Cr

Cumulative ROI by quarter

Q1118% peakQ4

Channel mix

  • Voice19%
  • WhatsApp0%
  • Web33%
  • Field app43%
  • Email5%

Language mix

2
  • English-7%
  • Hindi-15%

Segment performance

Volume, automation and win rate per market

MarketInteractionsAutomationDistributor stock-outsValueTrend
USA-140
35%
0%₹15L
t0t1t2t3t4t5t6t7
EU-320
45%
9%₹-23L
t0t1t2t3t4t5t6t7
Middle East-410
50%
-1%₹-2L
t0t1t2t3t4t5t6t7
India defence-5
52%
8%₹-31L
t0t1t2t3t4t5t6t7
SE Asia197
33%
-1%₹-6L
t0t1t2t3t4t5t6t7

Experiment log

What we tested on this product

ExperimentStatusResultOwner
Prompt v3 vs v2Won+8% distributor stock-outsAiera Labs
Voice-first vs chat-firstRunning+2% so farGrowth Pod
Retrieval window 8k → 32kWon-0% escalationsPlatform
Human review threshold 0.7Rolled backno liftOps
Vernacular tone packRunning+1 CSAT ptsCX

Risk register

Owned mitigations before scale

RiskSeverityMitigationOwner
Data freshness in source systemsMediumHourly sync + staleness alertsData Eng
Regulatory language in outputsHighStandards claims (EN/NFPA)Compliance
Field-team adoptionMediumIn-app nudges + weekly coaching drillsSales Ops
Model cost driftLowRouter to smaller models for routine intentsPlatform

Where it sits in the portfolio

Tap another dot to switch product

Quick winsBig bets
Impact ↑Effort →

Systems it touches

  • Distributor ERP / portal feeds

    Sell-through, stock on hand and ageing

    In build

  • SAP APO / IBP

    Replenishment and production planning

    Live

  • Project tender feeds

    Regional infrastructure and defence pipelines

    Planned

Product brief

Who uses it

Channel managers, supply planning, distributors

Metric it moves

Distributor stock-outs

Why Arvind wins

Visibility past the first sale, which most industrial suppliers never get

Demand forecastingDistributor data ingestionAutomated nudges

Guardrails

Applied to every response

  • Standards claims (EN/NFPA)
  • Export control
  • Technical data accuracy

Delivery plan

14-week path to production

Weeks 1–3

Ground the data

Connect 3 product sets, historical conversations and CRM outcomes.

Weeks 4–6

Pilot with one team

Run in USA with human review on every output.

Weeks 7–10

Automate the loop

Hand distributor stock-outs decisions to the agent with escalation thresholds.

Weeks 11–14

Scale across lines

Roll out to 2 languages and all geographies.

How it works

End-to-end, from signal to learned outcome

01

Capture the signal

Every Voice and WhatsApp interaction, plus CRM and order events, is streamed in and tagged to a customer, Protective wear and geography.

02

Ground the context

Demand forecasting indexes the 3 Arvind product sets, pricing rules and policy language so nothing is answered from memory alone.

03

Reason and decide

Distributor data ingestion scores the situation and picks the next best action — answer, quote, schedule, escalate — with a confidence threshold behind it.

04

Act in the workflow

Automated nudges writes back into CRM/ERP and fires the customer-facing action in English or Hindi, so the team sees it where they already work.

05

Learn from outcome

Won/lost and distributor stock-outs outcomes flow back nightly; prompts, thresholds and routing are retuned every fortnight.

Data it runs on

Sources, contents and refresh cadence

  • Conversation history

    Voice, WhatsApp, RFQ inbox, Distributor network transcripts with intent, objection and sentiment labels.

    Streaming

  • Catalogue & pricing

    Protective wear · Composites · Industrial with specs, availability and approved commercial language.

    Hourly

  • CRM outcomes

    Stage moves, win/loss reasons and owner activity per enquiry.

    15 min

  • Operations systems

    ERP order, stock, dispatch and service records used to answer status questions.

    Hourly

  • Market signals

    Demand and competitor movement across 5 geographies via DeployOneSense.

    Daily

Customer & team journey

  1. 1Trigger

    Channel managers, supply planning, distributors hits the moment this product exists for — stock-outs down 40%, forecast accuracy up a quarter ahead

  2. 2Agent acts

    Aiera responds within seconds on Voice, grounded in the live catalogue and the customer's own history.

  3. 3Human in the loop

    Anything below the confidence threshold, or touching Standards claims (EN/NFPA), routes to a named owner with full context attached.

  4. 4Close the loop

    Outcome is written back, the customer gets a summary on WhatsApp, and distributor stock-outs is attributed to this product.

Metric tree

What we steer and what we protect

North star

Distributor stock-outs

Drivers

  • Agent-handled share of eligible interactions
  • First-response time and resolution time
  • Qualified outcomes per 100 conversations in USA
  • Repeat engagement within 30 days

Guardrail metrics

  • Grounded-answer rate above 95%
  • Escalation rate inside agreed band
  • Standards claims (EN/NFPA)
  • Run cost per conversation below target

Squad to build it

Who is needed and for what

  • Product owner (Arvind)

    Scope, adoption and the business case

    0.5 FTE

  • Conversation designer

    Prompts, tone and 2-language scripts

    1 FTE

  • Data / integration engineer

    CRM, ERP and telephony wiring

    1 FTE

  • ML engineer

    Scoring models, evaluation harness, drift

    0.5 FTE

  • Ops champion per market

    Floor adoption across 5 geographies

    0.2 FTE each

Commercials

How the product pays for itself

Delivery model
Channel platform
Cost drivers
Inference volume, telephony minutes, integration upkeep
Charge basis
Per market licence + usage
Break-even
9 months at pilot volume
Scale unit
One geography × one Protective wear

Rollout waves

Scope and the exit test for each wave

Wave 1 — Prove

USA, Protective wear, human review on every output.

Exit test: Distributor stock-outs beats manual baseline on 200+ conversations.

Wave 2 — Automate

Add EU and Hindi; agent acts without review above threshold.

Exit test: Escalation rate under 10% for four straight weeks.

Wave 3 — Extend

All 3 product sets and 4 channels, wired into CRM reporting.

Exit test: Adoption above 70% of eligible interactions.

Wave 4 — Compound

Roll across 5 geographies and share the model with sibling Arvind businesses.

Exit test: Net value positive at run-rate; owned by business-as-usual team.

Dependencies to unblock

Needed before wave 1 starts

  • API access to CRM and ERP for Arvind Advanced Materials
  • Approved language pack for English, Hindi
  • Telephony numbers and consent records for outbound
  • Sign-off on Standards claims (EN/NFPA)
  • Named market champions for floor adoption

Open questions for the business

Answer these to lock the scope

  • Which USA team runs the pilot and who signs off on outcomes?
  • How far back does usable conversation history go for Protective wear?
  • What confidence threshold is acceptable before the agent acts unattended?
  • Which existing report does distributor stock-outs get compared against?
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